Published Papers

Immigration and Occupational Downgrading in Colombia (Published in Journal of Development Economics, 2024) [Replication Files] [Featured in Development Impact]

Short abstract: Between 2015-2019, approximately 1.8 million Venezuelans fled an economic and political crisis into neighboring Colombia. Despite being well-educated, these migrants disproportionately entered occupations that typically employ less-educated Colombians. This paper examines the economic consequences of migrant occupational downgrading using a model of labor demand with imperfect substitutability between migrants and natives. The findings underscore the importance of strengthening migrant-job matches to boost productivity and curb inequality, particularly in developing country contexts.

Migrant Exposure and Anti-Migrant Sentiment: The Case of the Venezuelans Exodus with Jonathan Moreno-Medina, Salma Mousa, and Horacio Coral (Published in Journal of Public Economics, 2024) [Featured in VoxDev]

Short abstract: This paper examines the effects of the Venezuelan exodus on migrant sentiment in Latin America as measured in survey responses and social media posts, and explores potential mechanisms including labor market competition, public good scarcity, crime, and increased migrant–native contact. While countries receiving the largest influxes of Venezuelans show substantial declines in migrant sentiment, we find no evidence that within-country variation in migrant locations affects sentiment. This suggests that anti-migrant attitudes are driven more by national-level narratives than by direct local experiences with migrants.

The Labor Market Effects of Venezuelan Migration to Colombia: Reconciling Conflicting Results (Published in IZA Journal of Development and Migration, 2022] [Replication files]

Short abstract: The recent mass migration of Venezuelans to Colombia offers a natural experiment for studying migration’s labor market effects in developing countries. While prior research consistently finds wage declines for less-educated Colombians in the informal sector, estimates of the size and significance of these effects vary widely despite similar data and methods. This paper identifies the empirical specification choices driving these discrepancies and provides robust estimates of Venezuelan migration’s impact on labor market outcomes in Colombia.

Working Papers

New Evidence on Inequality of Opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa: More Unequal Than We Thought with Aziz Atamanov, Facundo Cuevas, and Daniel Gerszon Mahler (R&R in Review of Development Economics) [WB Working Paper] [Blog Post]

Short abstract: Unequal access to economic opportunities due to inherited characteristics, such as birthplace, parents’ education, and ethnicity, is widely regarded as both morally undesirable and bad for economic growth. This paper estimates inequality of opportunity, a measure of the extent to which inherited characteristics explain inequality, across 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using recent machine learning methods. The findings show that inequality of opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa is stark and more pronounced than previously estimated.

Discussion Papers

Refugees and Social Assistance in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Review of Operational Experiences (2025) with Alfredo Manfredini Böhm, Pablo Acosta, and Emanuela Migliaccio [WB Social Protection Discussion Paper]

Short abstract: Low- and middle-income countries host the majority of the world’s refugees, who often live below the poverty line in underserved host communities. In response, international institutions such as the World Bank and the European Union have invested billions of dollars in social assistance programs for refugees and host communities. This paper distills lessons from major development investments and reviews the broader evidence on integrating refugees and host communities into national social protection systems.

Skills Systems for Adults and Out-of-School Youth: A Technical Note (2025) with Eliana Carranza and Xiaoyan Liang [WB Social Protection Discussion Paper]

Short abstract: Amid rapid labor market changes and aging workforces, countries need institutionalized programs and services that support lifelong skill development and utilization, from the school-to-work transition through adulthood. This technical note presents a conceptual framework for building skills systems that promote lifelong learning and employment for adults and out-of-school youth, alongside a review of relevant literature and examples from countries at varying stages of economic development.

Works in Progress

Intended and Unintended Consequences of a De Facto Inheritance Reform with Sabrin Beg, Erica Field, Suzanna Khalifa, and Kate Vyborny

Parenthood, Gender Wage Gaps, and Labor Market Outcomes in Indonesia with Duncan Thomas, Daniel Yi Xu, and Xiao Yu Wang